Spring isn’t far away down under, but winter has at least one more punch saved up for the southeast, especially Tasmania. The strongest winds of the season, accompanied by locally heavy rains and mountain snows, will affect the island Tuesday into Wednesday.
The rocky island of Tasmania is accustomed to gusty winds, especially during the winter months. The table above shows the max wind gusts from the season so far. The mountain peaks and exposed islands and peninsulas see peak wind gusts exceeding 100 kph on more days than not. However, gusts greater than 130-140 kph are rare. The next system to move across the Bight will be as highly energetic in the upper levels as any we’ve seen this winter. That will translate down to the surface as destructive winds, potentially the strongest of the season for many areas.
Gusts of at least 80-110 kph will be widespread, including the major population centers like Hobart and Launceston. Most of the coastal areas and higher terrain will see gusts of 100-120 kph. Known wind prone areas like Maatsuyker Island and Mt. Wellington could see gusts approach 150 kph! Strong winds will also affect portions of South Australia, Victoria, and New South Wales.
The danger from snow and rain will be relatively localized. However, totals amounts exceeding 100 mm in the western mountains will lead to some localized flooding. In addition, rain-weakened soils will be more likely to lead to trees coming down in high winds. Wind-driven snow will also be a visibility hazard at the highest peaks.