The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season started out on a busy note. Even as the last pre-season forecasts were being released, Subtropical Storm Alberto ripped from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Florida panhandle, causing close to $125 million in damage. July saw two hurricanes form over the open Atlantic, although neither threatened land at peak strength.
However, since mid-July there’s only been one named storm, Debby, that quietly looped over the northern Atlantic this week before dissipating. The near to above-normal activity initially forecast in the spring has been slow to develop. The building El Niño expected to come into being this fall is partly to blame. The graphic below is taken from NOAA’s latest ENSO forecast report with temperature anomalies approaching the +1.0 deg C threshold for El Niño conditions in the next six months. Sea surface temperatures in the prime development area off the coast of western Africa have also been cooler than normal.
As we move through the rest of August into early September, we’ll be approaching the typical peak of hurricane activity. The ongoing quiet spell won’t last forever. However, the latest forecast calls for seasonal totals near to below normal (see graphic below).
