Tropical Depression 5 (TD 5) formed over the South China Sea this weekend and could become Tropical Storm Ewiniar this week.
TD 5 Expected Track
The Details
Satellite imagery over TD 5 shows the system is rather disorganized due to a moderate amount of easterly wind shear. Some gradual intensification is likely over the next couple of days, however, moderate wind shear through Monday will cap how strong the system can get.
TD 5 is expected to move in a northward direction over the next several days. This trajectory would take the system near or over the Chinese province of Hainan between Tuesday and Thursday.
Wind shear will weaken by the middle of the week allowing a more conducive environment for tropical development. If the center of TD 5 stays mostly out over water, the storm will have to be watched for additional strengthening between Tuesday and Friday.
Regardless of strength, rounds of heavy rain and strong winds are likely across Hainan beginning on Monday and continuing for much of the week. A cold front moving across mainland China will draw moisture from TD 5 northward bringing the risk of heavy rain and flooding to a large area of southeast China.
TD 5’s track later in the week becomes more uncertain. If the cold front picks up the storm, then TD 5 will move in a easterly direction toward Taiwan. However, the TD 5 misses the connection with the cold front, the storm could meander in the South China Sea just off shore.
If the latter scenario pans out, there could be a more significant flooding threat to southern China.