We’re monitoring a severe storm threat set to break out this afternoon into tonight. These storms will organize into a fast-moving squall line this evening along the KS-OK border, accompanied by widespread damaging winds.
Strong instability is building over portions of the Central and Southern Plains thanks to afternoon heating (see animation above). At the same time, upper level winds are increasing with shear of 40-50 knots. This combination will help storms intensify in southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico in the late afternoon. As these storms move east towards southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, a squall line should form. In the early morning hours on Thursday, expect the squall line to slowly weaken. Large hail to 2.5 inches (7 cm) will occur this afternoon and evening with the stronger cells. Later on with the squall line the main threat will become high winds 70-80 mph (115-130 kph).
