Severe storms are likely Tuesday evening for eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, including the Topeka and Kansas City metro areas.
Storms will develop along and ahead of a slow moving cold front, with extra support coming from a quick moving upper level disturbance as well as increasing southwest winds in the low levels of the atmosphere.
The biggest threat from the early storms (between 5 and 8 p.m. CDT) will be hail up to 2″ in diameter, primarily in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. But as the evening progresses, the primary risk will transition to damaging winds between 50 and 70 mph, especially for northern Missouri. Pockets of very rain will also be possible from any storms, leading to localized flash flooding. While an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, the overall threat for a twister is low Tuesday night.
Some strong thunderstorms will remain possible across central and northern Illinois after midnight until sunrise Wednesday, with heavy rain and gusty winds the primary risk.