After a record-setting warm winter for the entirety of the U.S., spring is beginning to take hold across the country. Our MORECAST meteorologists take a look at what could be in store for the next couple of months!
Despite El Nino weakening, it will continue to exert its influence on weather patterns across much of North America for a short while longer. The result: mild weather will dominate over the northern half of the U.S. (Map 1.). Warm ocean temperatures off the West Coast will also keep everywhere from California to Alaska warmer than usual. The same patterns that bring warmth to the north will, however, mean below average temps across parts of Texas and New Mexico.
Map 1.
While much of the northern U.S. looks to enjoy a mild spring, the southern half of the country appears on track for above average precipitation (Map 2.). The typical moisture-laden air masses pushed inland during El Nino years will continue to impact the region as they have done for months now, with New Mexico and the surrounding areas most likely bearing the brunt of the extra moisture. Florida and coastal areas of the Southeast also look set for some extra rainfall in the coming months, though with a lesser chance outside of central and southern Florida.
Map 2.
So what does this mean for the coming spring storm season? In the situation we’re looking at, the jet stream dips a little further south than usual, allowing cooler and drier air to push down from Canada. When this happens, the main source of moisture for most of the U.S. is the Pacific, not the Gulf of Mexico. Since storms in the Plains rely on good moisture enrichment from the Gulf, we could well see a drop in the number of strong storms across the Plains. That said, with a more southerly jet, ingredients for storms more readily come together in the Southeast and Florida. We have already seen a number of tornadoes in Dixie Alley this year, and with activity potentially being forced south, we may see this continue. The southerly jet also could mean more tornadoes for areas like Florida, whose deadliest outbreak occurred during the 1998 El Nino. For more on the upcoming severe season, take a look at our Spring tornado outlook here:
https://wordpress-api.morecast.com/en/2016/02/26/tornado-season-off-to-roaring-start-in-2016/
Make sure to keep up to date with the weather this spring using our MORECAST app, and by following us on social media platforms!