Mr. Morecast gets you up to speed with the DAYTONA 500 Forecast

MORECAST takes a look at how weather plays a pivotal role in NASCAR and the history of how it has impacted the DAYTONA 500. What kind of weather can we expect for NASCAR’s largest event of the season?

Unlike some divisions of racing, the top 3 divisions of NASCAR do not race in the rain. This is because the tires employed by NASCAR do not support wet track conditions. Therefore, if rain begins to fall at any point during a race, the yellow caution flag must be thrown to slow the cars down or the red flag must be thrown to stop the race if the rain is too heavy. Wind can have a minor impact on racing, most notably when cars are trying to draft each other on a straight section of race track. Any type of crosswind would make this a little more difficult when driving at high speeds. Believe it or not, the air temperature can influence a race, and more importantly, the racetrack itself. Hot air temperatures add stress to a race car’s engine, as well as the track. A warmer track surface causes slick conditions during a race and provides more handling issues for a car when traveling at high speeds in corners. The opposite applies for cooler weather. Colder track conditions provide more grip for tires which allows for increased speed when maneuvering through corners. Sky cover can also have an impact on a race based on the amount of sunlight that reaches the track. The more sunlight that is exposed to the surface can cause warmer track temperatures. All of this is why forecasting for a NASCAR race can become very strategic. Based on a given forecast, race teams can make adjustments to their cars based on what the weather is expected to do.

In its 57 previous years, the race has been shortened only 4 times due to rain: 1965, 1966, 2003, and most recently, 2009. A NASCAR race is considered “official” once the race leader has reached half of the scheduled distance; after that, NASCAR can declare a winner if conditions become too dangerous to continue the race. In 2009, the race was called with 48 laps remaining. Matt Kenseth was declared the winner, his first 500 victory, after only leading one lap under green. The 2010 race was filled with drama. The track had not been repaved since 1978 and a massive pothole formed in turn 2, resulting in major delays. The pothole was believed to be caused by not only the age of the track surface, but also cold temperatures and rain prior to the start of the race. In 2012, the DAYTONA 500 did not begin until Monday night. Heavy rain throughout the day on Sunday at the track led to the first ever postponement of the race. Recently in 2014, 39 laps into the event, heavy thunderstorms and a nearby tornado warning prompted a record roughly 7 hour delay of the race until it finally finished around 11:30PM local time with Dale Earnhardt Jr. being the eventual winner.

Below is the preliminary forecast for DAYTONA Speedweeks events.

Friday February 19th:
NEXTERA ENERGY RESOURCES 250 – 7:30PM EST.
Partly Cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 60’s.
East wind at 5-10 mph diminishing late.

Saturday February 20th:
POWERSHARES QQQ 300 – 3:30PM EST.
Mostly Sunny skies with temperatures in the upper 60’s.
Southeast wind at 5-10 mph.

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