This morning, tens of thousands of otherwise ordinary Americans flocked to a little town in western Pennsylvania, anxious to see what a groundhog named Phil had to say about the prospects for wintry weather in the next several weeks. While it seems odd to depend on a furry ten-pound mammal to forecast the end of winter, it’s far from the only example of humans taking our weather forecasting cues from the animal kingdom.
As the legend goes, if it’s cloudy and the groundhog emerges from hibernation without seeing his shadow, spring is at hand. Such was the case this morning in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, causing the gathered crowd there to celebrate the end of winter despite chilly temperatures in the lower 20s. If he had seen his shadow, however, Phil would have been back in his burrow quickly, and there would have been six more weeks of winter yet to go. “Punxsutawney Phil” is only the most famous member of the groundhog forecasting fraternity, however. Celebrations are held on February 2nd all the way from Alberta, Canada (a groundhog named “Balzac Billy”) to Garner, North Carolina (“Mortimer”) and many places in between.
Other animals are traditionally thought to possess reliable weather forecasting capabilities:
- Frogs are supposed to croak louder when bad weather is on the way.
- Birds supposedly fly higher when the weather is clear, but lower near storms due to pain caused by pressure fluctuations at higher altitudes.
- Cows and other grazing animals become restless and antsy at the approach of bad weather and look for a place to lie down to save a dry patch, or huddle together for warmth.
- “When ladybugs swarm, expect a day that’s warm.”
- Ants build up their mounds for extra protection or to cover the mounds’ holes when bad weather is imminent.
- The deeper the hole a mole digs, the harsher will be the upcoming winter.
- “Trout jump high when a rain is nigh.”
Animals seem to have a sense that humans lack about the approach of not only bad weather but other natural disasters. For example, anecdotal evidence suggests that during the Boxing Day tsunami of 2004 that killed more than 200,000 people, wild animals mostly managed to escape to safety and very few perished. Researchers disagree with the notion that animals have a preternatural sixth sense that allows them to predict the future, they’re probably just able to use the same five senses that people have in ways that most people can’t. Sonic shockwaves produced by earthquakes and ocean wave activity might be detectable to animals like dogs or cows outside the range of normal human hearing. Hurricanes and thunderstorms produce shockwaves in this range as well.
Animals are also more sensitive to subtle fluctuations in air or water pressure. Fluctuations that are way beyond the norm, such as rapid pressure falls associated with an approaching hurricane, trigger fear and anxiety in animals, and the instinct to flee or find cover. Hard data supporting these abilities isn’t easy to come by. But rigorous professional surveys taken after major disasters like the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami indicated that animals like cats began acting strangely several days in advance. Studies also indicate a significant correlation between impending earthquakes and decreased milk production in cows. The advances of modern technology have generally made these kinds of “old wives’ tales” obsolete as forecasting methods, but they retain a certain old-fashioned charm, and could even point scientists in promising directions for future research.